Jasper raised $125M at a $1.5B valuation. Dozens of “Chat with PDF” startups charged $20/month. Tile invented the Bluetooth tracker. All three got crushed almost overnight by tech giants.

If you are building an AI company in 2026, here are the 3 questions that determine whether you survive or die:

1. Can a tech giant build this as a feature? — If yes, you need a moat beyond the feature itself
2. Do you own the distribution? — If your customer acquisition depends on someone else’s platform, you are renting, not owning
3. Is your data advantage defensible? — If your data is public or easy to replicate, you have no long-term advantage

Framework credit: @lobstercapital

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